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Improving Mortality Forecasts, 31 August 2016

The EAPS Health, Morbidity and Mortality Working Group is organizing this workshop in conjunction with the European Population Conference 2016 in Mainz, Germany

Improving mortality forecasts, Wednesday, 31st August (EPC opens that evening) led by Dr. Fanny Janssen of Groningen University

Mortality forecasts and projections are essential for predicting the extent of population ageing, and for determining the sustainability of pension schemes and social security systems. They are also useful in setting life insurance premiums, and in helping governments to better plan for the changing needs of their societies for health care and other services. However, current forecasts of future mortality often prove inaccurate. First, the forecasts are not robust over time. As past mortality forecasts have repeatedly proven too pessimistic, forecasts of future life expectancy by national statistical offices are frequently being adjusted upwards. Second, a comparison of the forecasts made for individual countries shows unrealistically large differences in future life expectancy between countries. Mortality forecasts are inaccurate largely because conventional extrapolative methods cannot capture (1) the impact of lifestyle ‘epidemics’ on mortality, which result in non-gradual trends over time and in large differences between men and women, birth cohorts, and countries; and (2) changes over time in the age distribution of dying.

The "Smoking, alcohol and obesity - ingredients for improved and robust mortality projections" project aims to improve the coherence and robustness of future mortality estimates for Europe by developing a novel projection methodology which integrates these two elements based on new and to-be-generated insights on past mortality trends. This workshop – funded under the above-mentioned project - seeks to bring together scientists, mortality forecasting experts and other stakeholders, to discuss potential advances in mortality forecasting and the latest results from the project, and to share ideas on the development of a new mortality projection methodology as to contribute to better mortality forecasts in Europe. Among others, a newly developed method to project mortality including shifts in the age-at-death distribution will be presented.

Preliminary programme
09.00-09.15 Welcome by Fanny Janssen
09.15-10.30 Keynote address (Roland Rau) about current advances in mortality forecasting
10.30-11.00 Coffee break
11.00-11.45 Presentation by Fanny Janssen, Sergi Trias-Llimós and Nikoletta Vidra about smoking, alcohol and obesity attributable mortality trends in Europe
11.45-12.30 Presentation by Fanny Janssen & Joop de Beer about projecting mortality including shifts in the age-at-death distribution, the smoking epidemic and trends from other countries
12.30-13.30 Lunch
Four issues in mortality forecasting will be raised. Each will be shortly introduced (5 minutes or so) and then discussed.
    35 minutes per issue (13.30-14.05; 14.05-14.40; 14.40-15.25; 15.25-16.00)
16.00-16.15 Some final words

Cost: The workshop is funded by Fanny Janssen's project on Improving Mortality Forecasts, so there will be no participation cost. Registration is required, first come, first served, and there will be a small cost for refreshments (morning and afternoon tea, sandwich lunch). Details to follow. Registration limit 25 people.

If you are interested in participating in this workshop please inform the Coordinator of the Working Group, Jon Anson:

Chaired by: 

The Workhop is chaired by Fanny Jansen of Groningen University